Summary of the socio-economic analysis of the potential Species at Risk Act (SARA) listing of Chinook salmon Designatable Unit (DU) 2: Lower Fraser, Ocean, Fall (Harrison Chinook)

Report date: November 17, 2025

• Region: Pacific
• Population: Lower Fraser, Ocean, Fall (Harrison)
• Scientific name: Oncorhynchus tshawytscha
• COSEWIC status: Threatened
• SARA status: Under consideration

Context

The Lower Fraser, Ocean, Fall population (designatable unit [DU] 2) of Chinook salmon (herein “Harrison Chinook”) was assessed in November 2018 as threatened by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC), initiating the current SARA listing process.

A socio-economic analysis (SEA) has been completed to inform the current SARA listing decision for Harrison Chinook. The SEA considers incremental costs and benefits relative to a baseline of activity that accounts for management measures in place, or known to be coming into force, in the absence of the proposed regulation (i.e., without vs. with listing).

Baseline management and economic profiles

To create the baseline scenario for this analysis, an average of the data from 2020-2023 was used.

Chinook salmon fisheries are managed by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO). There are currently restrictions on Chinook retention in commercial, recreational, and Food, Social, and Ceremonial (FSC) fisheries, as well as in the Five Nations rights-based sale fishery and recreational fisheries.

Management scenarios

Base case (i.e., baseline), List and Do Not List management scenarios were developed as part of the current listing process^{Footnote 1}. The SEA assesses the economic impacts of proposed and mandatory measures in each scenario relative to the baseline.

Under the "List" scenario

SARA general prohibitions would immediately come into effect in Canada, making it illegal to kill, harm, harass, capture, take, possess, collect, buy, sell, or trade Harrison Chinook. Activities affecting the species or its critical habitat may be permitted or exempted under SARA, provided certain purposes and conditions are met. A recovery strategy would be developed and further measures to address known threats may be identified in a subsequent action plan. Critical habitat (the habitat necessary for survival or recovery of Harrison Chinook) would be identified, to the extent possible, in a recovery strategy and protected from destruction. Regardless of the SARA listing decision, Harrison Chinook will continue to receive protection under the Fisheries Act.

To comply with SARA general prohibitions, the following restrictions and closures are anticipated:

• Areas F and G commercial troll for Chinook would be closed year-round, with non- retention of Chinook in other salmon fisheries in these areas
• The Five Nations rights-based sale fishery for WCVI Aggregate Abundance-Based Management (AABM) Chinook would be closed year-round
• Chinook non-retention would occur in recreational fisheries in Pacific Fisheries Management Areas (PFMA) 13 to 17, 18, 19, 20-3 to 20-7, 28, 29-1 to 29-5, and 29-8
• Fraser River and South Coast marine test fisheries would not be allowed to sell Chinook when there is a likelihood of encountering Harrison Chinook
• Habitat protection, research activities, and changes to hatchery production may be implemented. However, the scope and timelines are undefined at this time. As such, quantitative impacts cannot be determined for these activities

Under the "do not list" scenario

• Individuals and their habitat would continue to be managed and protected under existing legislation (Fisheries Act)
• Management measures currently in place are expected to continue

Costs of "list" and "do not list" scenarios

Impacts were assessed over a 12-year period, which is consistent with the timeframe considered in the Recovery Potential Assessment (Weir et al. 2022) and is representative of approximately three generations for the population. All monetary values are expressed in real 2023 Canadian dollars, and annualized and present values are calculated using a 7% discount rate, in accordance with Treasury Board guidelines.

Total monetized costs were estimated at $63.2 – $95.9 million (present value) over the 12 year period, or $8.0 – $12.1 million per year. In the commercial salmon fishery, listing would result in a reduction of almost the entire landed value of Area G and two-thirds of the landed value of Area F. The breakdown of the annualized average incremental costs to interested parties are as follows:

• Loss in profits to commercial salmon fisheries (including the Five Nations rights- based sale fishery) and seafood processing are estimated to be $1.0m. For the commercial fishery this would affect approximately 343 crew (jobs lost or reduced). For the processing sector, about 5 direct jobs would be affected
• Loss in profits to the recreational fishing sector are estimated to be $2.5m to $3.0m. Losses in consumer surplus^{Footnote 2} to tidal anglers are estimated to be $4.4m to $8.1m
• Concerning Fraser River and South Coast marine test fisheries, restricting sales of Chinook could result in an annual average reduction of $235,000 in revenue

Additional groups could be affected as a result of their share in potentially affected commercial salmon fisheries.

Table 1 below provides a detailed breakdown of the costs to businesses and Canadians.

The cost of research activities to government is unknown but is expected to be low^{Footnote 3}. Additionally, these costs may be covered by existing DFO and SARA program funding.

Under a Do Not List scenario, the Baseline would persist. As such, there are no incremental costs or benefits under the Do Not List scenario.

Benefits of "list" and "do not list" scenarios

Simulations of growth and recovery probabilities in the Recovery Potential Assessment for Harrison Chinook show different potentials for benefits. Results suggest that, at base case productivity levels, fishing mortality must be significantly reduced so as to not jeopardize recovery (Weir et al. 2022).

In the absence of specific information on recovery potential, incremental benefits cannot be estimated. Instead, a breakeven analysis was conducted to establish a range of benefits, or willingness to pay (WTP) values, that would be needed to offset the monetized costs and demonstrate a net benefit. The WTP is estimated by dividing the total incremental cost of the listing scenario by the number of Canadian households^{Footnote 4}. For the listing scenario, the benefits value would need to be $0.48 to $0.73/year, per Canadian household, to equal the monetized costs.

To validate these breakeven values, they were compared to a valuation study for Chinook protection and recovery in the US (Wallmo and Lew, 2012). This study is considered representative of the management measures proposed for Harrison Chinook if listed under SARA, and is the most current research in this area. This study estimated the annual WTP value of Chinook salmon recovery at CAD $51.32 per household (2023 dollars), after adjusting for inflation and exchange rate^{Footnote 5}.

This analysis suggests that the breakeven values of $0.48 to $0.73/year are well below the estimate in the Wallmo and Lew study, demonstrating that benefits of recovery, if achieved, could potentially be greater than costs.

Summary

Overall, the incremental costs under the List scenario are between $63.2 and $95.9 million present value, with an annualized value of $8.0 and $12.1 million. This is within the range of “high impact,” as defined by Treasury Board guidance. There are no incremental costs or benefits under the Do Not List scenario. Benefits of recovery could exceed the monetized costs, provided the recovery objective is achieved.

References

• COSEWIC 2019. COSEWIC assessment and status report on the Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, Designatable Units in Southern British Columbia (Part One – Designatable Units with no or low levels of artificial releases in the last 12 years), in Canada. Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada. Ottawa. xxxi + 283 pp.
• Weir, L., Doutaz, D., Arbeider, M., Holt, K., Davis, B., Wor, C., Jenewein, B., Dionne, K., Labelle, M., Parken, C., Bailey, R., Velez-Espino, A., Holt, C. 2022. Recovery Potential Assessment for 11 Designatable Units of Chinook Salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, Part 2: Elements 12 to 22. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2022/032. x + 125 p
• Wallmo, K., Lew, D. K., 2012. Public Willingness to Pay for Recovering and Downlisting Threatened and Endangered Marine Species. Conservation Biology, 26(5), 830–839.