Summary of the socio-economic analysis of the potential Species at Risk Act (SARA) listing of Chinook salmon Designatable Unit (DU) 6: Lower Fraser, Ocean, Summer (Maria Slough Chinook)

Report date: November 17, 2025

• Region: Pacific
• Population: Lower Fraser, Ocean, Summer (Maria Slough)
• Scientific name: Oncorhynchus tshawytscha
• COSEWIC status: Endangered
• SARA status: Under consideration

Context

The Lower Fraser, Ocean, Summer population (designatable unit [DU] 6) of Chinook salmon (hereafter Maria Slough Chinook) was assessed as endangered by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) in 2020, initiating the current Species at Risk Act (SARA) listing process.

A socio-economic analysis (SEA) has been completed to inform the current SARA listing decision for Maria Slough Chinook. The SEA considers incremental costs and benefits relative to a baseline of activity that accounts for management measures in place, or known to be coming into force, in the absence of the proposed regulation (i.e., without vs. with listing).

Baseline management and economic profiles

To create the baseline scenario for this analysis, an average of the data from 2020-2023 was used.

Chinook salmon fisheries are managed by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO). There are currently restrictions on Chinook retention in commercial, recreational, and Food, Social, and Ceremonial (FSC) fisheries, as well as in the Five Nations rights-based sale fishery and recreational fisheries.

Management scenarios

Base case (i.e., baseline), List and Do Not List management scenarios were developed as part of the current listing process^{Footnote 1}. Management scenarios outline the likely regulatory and non- regulatory activities associated with listing Maria Slough Chinook, and detail potential management options whether or not they are listed under SARA. Management scenarios are not binding commitments but are intended to represent realistic and feasible approaches given the information available at the time of drafting. The SEA assesses the economic impacts of mandatory and potential measures in each scenario relative to the baseline.

Under the "List" scenario

SARA general prohibitions would immediately come into effect in Canada, making it illegal to kill, harm, harass, capture, take, possess, collect, buy, sell, or trade Maria Slough Chinook. Activities affecting the species or its critical habitat may be permitted or exempted under SARA, provided certain purposes and pre- conditions are met. A recovery strategy would be developed and further measures to address known threats may be identified in a subsequent action plan. Critical habitat (the habitat necessary for the survival or recovery of Maria Slough Chinook) would be identified, to the extent possible, in a recovery strategy and protected from destruction. Regardless of the SARA listing decision, Maria Slough Chinook will continue to receive protection under the Fisheries Act.

To comply with SARA general prohibitions, the following restrictions and closures are anticipated:

• Commercial fisheries in the following areas would be closed year-round:
  • Area B seine: sockeye and pink (excluding Somass Sockeye)
  • Area D gillnet: sockeye and pink (excluding Somass Sockeye)
  • Area E gillnet: sockeye
  • Area F troll: Chinook, coho, and pink
  • Area G troll: Chinook and sockeye
  • Area H troll: sockeye and pink
• The Five Nations rights-based sale fishery for West Coast of Vancouver Island (WCVI) Aggregate Abundance-Based Management (AABM) Chinook, coho, Fraser River Sockeye, Fraser River Pink, and lingcod would be closed year-round
• Economic Opportunity fisheries that target sockeye and pink and intercept Chinook as bycatch would be closed
• Chinook non-retention would occur in recreational fisheries in Pacific Fisheries Management Areas (PFMA) 1, 2, 6 to 28, 29-1 to 29-5, 29-8, 111, 121, and 123 to 127
• Recreational salmon fisheries that encounter Maria Slough Chinook incidentally or as bycatch downstream of the CPR Bridge at Mission, BC (PFMAs 29-6, 29-7, and 29-9 to 29-17) would be closed from August to October
• Chinook non-retention would occur in FSC fisheries in PFMAs 1, 2, 11 to 29, 111, 121, and 123 to 127 and Lower Fraser FSC salmon fisheries below the confluence of the Fraser River and Maria Slough would be closed
• South Coast marine test fisheries that likely encounter Maria Slough Chinook would be unable to sell Chinook caught at any time
• Retention of Chinook for sale purposes would also be prohibited in Fraser River test fisheries (Albion gillnet, Brownsville Bar gillnet, and Whonnock gillnet) between July and September
• Habitat protection, research activities, and changes to hatchery production may be implemented. However, the scope and timelines are undefined at this time. As such, quantitative impacts cannot be determined for these activities

Under the "do not list" scenario

• Individuals and their habitat would continue to be managed and protected under existing legislation (Fisheries Act)
• Management measures currently in place are expected to continue

Costs of "list" and "do not list" scenarios

Impacts were assessed over a 12-year period, which is consistent with the timeframe considered in the Recovery Potential Assessment (Dionne et al. 2023) and is representative of approximately three generations for the population. All monetary values are expressed in real 2023 Canadian dollars, and annualized and present values are calculated using a 7% discount rate, in accordance with Treasury Board guidelines.

Total monetized costs were estimated at $104.1 – $154.4 million (present value) over the 12 year period, or $13.1 – $19.4 million per year. The breakdown of the annualized average incremental costs to interested parties are as follows:

• Loss in profits to commercial salmon fisheries (including the Five Nations rights- based sale fishery) and seafood processing are estimated to be $1.1m
• Loss in profits to the recreational fishing sector are estimated to be $5.3m to $6.1m. Losses in consumer surplus^{Footnote 2} to recreational anglers are estimated to be $6.7m to $12.2m
• Concerning Fraser River and South Coast marine test fisheries, restricting sales of Chinook could result in an annual average reduction of $234,000 in revenue

Table 1 below provides a detailed breakdown of the costs to businesses and Canadians.

*Some harvesters reported negative profit margins, specifically in the salmon seine and gillnet fisheries. However, vessels fishing in these fisheries are quite diversified^{Footnote 3}. Vessels fishing in the salmon gillnet and salmon seine fisheries only see a quarter of their revenue come from these fisheries. In the case of vessels fishing in the salmon gillnet fishery, over half of their revenues come from halibut, prawn, and crab, which all command high profit margins. In the case of vessels fishing in the salmon seine fishery, 40% of their revenues come from profitable fisheries (halibut and sablefish fisheries)^{Footnote 4}.

It is estimated that FSC fisheries may experience a reduction of over 18,000 pieces of Chinook salmon. This is an estimate based on publicly available data;^{Footnote 5}; as such, the actual number of pieces of Chinook salmon that may be affected by List scenario measures may vary. Non-retention of Chinook in FSC fisheries in these areas could result in social and cultural impacts. The inherent cultural significance is not assessed here and cannot be monetized.

The cost of research activities to government is unknown but is expected to be low^{Footnote 6}. It is uncertain how costly habitat protection and changes to hatchery production might be. However, these costs may be covered by existing DFO and SARA program funding.

Under a "Do Not List" scenario, the baseline would persist. As such, there are no incremental costs or benefits under the "Do Not List" scenario.

Benefits of "list" and "do not list" scenarios

Simulations of growth and recovery probabilities in the Recovery Potential Assessment for Maria Slough Chinook show different potentials for benefits. Results suggest that it is unlikely that Maria Slough Chinook would recover without drastic measures taken to mitigate threats. However, information was not available to assess the potential efficacy of mitigation measures, nor their potential to increase the probability of meeting the recovery target.

In the absence of specific information on recovery potential, incremental benefits cannot be estimated. Instead, a breakeven analysis was conducted to establish a range of benefits, or willingness to pay (WTP) values, that would be needed to offset the monetized costs and demonstrate a net benefit. The WTP is estimated by dividing the total incremental cost of the listing scenario by the number of Canadian households^{Footnote 7}. For the listing scenario, the benefits value would need to be $0.79 to $1.18/year, per Canadian household, to equal the monetized costs.

To validate these breakeven values, they were compared to a valuation study for Chinook protection and recovery in the United States of America (Wallmo and Lew, 2012). This study is considered representative of the potential management measures to be implemented for Maria Slough Chinook if listed under SARA, and is the most current research in this area. This study estimated the annual WTP value of Chinook salmon recovery at CAD $51.32 per household (2023 dollars), after adjusting for inflation and exchange rate^{Footnote 8}.

This analysis suggests that the breakeven values of $0.79 to $1.18/year are well below the estimate in the Wallmo and Lew study, demonstrating that benefits of recovery, if achieved, could potentially be greater than costs.

Summary

Overall, the incremental costs under the List scenario are between $104.1 and $154.4 million present value, with an annualized value of $13.1 and $19.4 million. This is within the range of “high impact,” as defined by Treasury Board guidance. There are no incremental costs or benefits under the Do Not List scenario. Benefits of recovery could exceed the monetized costs, provided the recovery objective is achieved.

References

• COSEWIC. 2020. COSEWIC assessment and status report on the Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, Designatable Units in Southern British Columbia (Part Two - Designatable Units with High Levels of Artificial Releases in the Last 12 Years), in Canada. Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada. Ottawa. xxxv + 203 pp.
• Dionne, K., Rachinski, T., Parken, C., Weir, L., Doutaz, D., Ritchie, L., Bailey, R., Jenewein, B., Miller-Saunders, K., Labelle, M., Manson, M., Welch, P., Trouton, N., Mozin, P., and Walsh, M. 2023. Recovery Potential Assessment for Southern British Columbian Chinook Populations, Fraser and Southern Mainland Chinook Designatable Units (1, 6, 13 and 15). DFO Can. Sci. Advis.
• Wallmo, K., Lew, D. K., 2012. Public Willingness to Pay for Recovering and Downlisting Threatened and Endangered Marine Species. Conservation Biology, 26(5), 830–839.